With only 10 games left in the league stage of IPL 2024, there remain 1,024 possible combinations of match results. Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) have secured their spot in the playoffs, while Mumbai Indians (MI) and Punjab Kings (PBKS) have been eliminated. Let’s delve into the playoff scenarios for each team:
- KKR: Currently leading the table, their chances of finishing as sole toppers have risen to 50% after Saturday’s victory. They also have a 75% chance of finishing as joint toppers. At worst, they could tie for the second spot with another team (Sunrisers Hyderabad).
- Rajasthan Royals (RR): KKR’s win against MI reduced RR’s chances of being sole toppers from 36% to 25%, and their chances of at least tying for the top spot dropped from 62.5% to 50%. While not yet assured of a playoff spot, the probability of them missing out is less than 0.8%.
- Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH): Currently in third place, SRH have nearly a 97% chance of finishing among the top four teams based on points. Their best-case scenario is a joint first spot with one or two other teams, with a probability of only 1.6%.
- Chennai Super Kings (CSK): In fourth place, CSK has a little over a 56% chance of finishing within the top four slots either solely or jointly. Their best outcome would be tied for the second spot with one to three other teams, with just under a 5% chance of that happening.
- Delhi Capitals (DC): With no chance of finishing as the table-topper or joint table-topper, DC’s likelihood of ending up among the top four, solely or jointly, is around 58%. Their best-case scenario is a joint second spot on points, with a 2.3% chance of occurrence.
- Lucknow Super Giants (LSG): Similar to DC, LSG also has approximately a 58% chance of making it to the top four, either solely or jointly. Their best-case scenario is tying for the second spot with one to three other teams, with just a 2.3% chance.
- Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB): Positioned seventh, RCB’s chances of finishing among the top four teams based on points, solely or jointly, are slightly above 20%. Their best-case scenario is a joint third spot with two to five other teams, with less than a 5% chance of happening.
- Gujarat Titans (GT): Currently eighth, GT still has nearly a 16% chance of securing a top-four finish, either solely or jointly. Their best-case scenario is a joint third spot with three to five other teams, with less than a 5% chance of occurring.
- PBKS: Their playoff hopes have ended, with even the chances of a joint fifth spot being low at 0.6%.
- MI: MI is also out of contention for the playoffs. They can, at best, finish joint seventh, with just a 2.3% chance.
In summary, KKR has secured a playoff berth, with RR likely to join them. SRH is also favored to make it, leaving CSK, LSG, and DC competing for the fourth spot. RCB or GT would need several results to go their way to enter the mix.
Calculation Methodology:
We analyze all 1,024 possible combinations of match outcomes and determine the final rankings of the teams. The percentages reflect the likelihood of a team finishing in the top four, first spot, and so on. The assumption is that each match has a 50-50 chance, considering the IPL’s historical unpredictability. For instance, RR finishes as sole or joint table-toppers in 512 out of 1,024 combinations, indicating a 50% chance of being the top team.
