With 12 matches remaining in the league stage of IPL 2024, there are nearly 4,100 potential combinations of match results. While no team has secured a playoff berth yet, two teams, MI and PBKS, are already eliminated. Let’s delve into the playoff probabilities for each team:
- KKR – Currently leading the table, KKR has a 36% chance of securing the top position outright. Remarkably, they could achieve this even with just one win from their remaining three matches. Their likelihood of finishing joint toppers based on points stands at an impressive 62.5%. However, they are not yet assured of a playoff spot. If they lose all remaining matches, they might end up tied fourth with DC or LSG, but the probability of such an outcome is merely 0.4%.
- RR – Similar to KKR, RR also holds a 36% chance of claiming the top position individually by the end of the league phase and a 62.5% chance of sharing the first spot based on points. Yet, their playoff berth is not guaranteed. Losing all remaining matches could see them tied fourth with DC or LSG, but the probability of this scenario is a mere 0.4%.
- SRH – Presently occupying third place, SRH holds a nearly 94% chance of finishing among the top four teams based on points. Their best-case scenario involves sharing the top spot with one to three other teams, with a probability of just under 5%.
- CSK – Positioned fourth, CSK has slightly over a 73% chance of securing one of the top four slots either individually or jointly. Like SRH, their highest potential outcome is sharing the top spot with one to three other teams, with a mere 4% chance of occurrence.
- DC – Currently fifth, DC has no possibility of claiming the top or joint top position. Their chances of finishing within the top four, individually or jointly, are just under 50%. Their optimal outcome would be sharing the second position on points, with a probability of slightly under 4%.
- LSG – In sixth place presently, LSG’s chances of securing a playoff spot, individually or jointly, are slightly under 50%. Like DC, their best-case scenario involves sharing the second position with one to three other teams, with a probability of just under 4%.
- RCB – Despite their recent win, RCB remains in seventh place, with the best-case scenario being tied for third or fourth. However, their chances of achieving this have increased from around 8% to over 16%.
- GT – The defending champions are at the bottom of the table, with slim chances of progressing at slightly under 8%.
- PBKS – Following their loss to RCB, Punjab’s 2024 campaign has effectively concluded as they are now unable to reach the last four. Even the chances of a joint fifth spot are a mere 0.3%.
- MI – MI was already eliminated from the playoffs. Their best possible outcome is a joint fifth position, with a probability of just 0.6%.
In summary, it’s likely that KKR and RR will make the playoffs, joined by two of CSK, SRH, LSG, and DC, with the former two having a notably higher probability. For RCB or GT to enter the mix, numerous favorable outcomes would be necessary.
Calculation Methodology:
With 12 games remaining, there are 4,096 potential combinations of match outcomes. Each scenario is analyzed to determine the final rankings of the teams. The percentage of outcomes favorable to each team’s top-four finish or top spot is then calculated. The assumption is that each match outcome is a 50-50 chance. For instance, SRH finishes among the top four slots in 3,840 out of 4,096 combinations, resulting in a 93.8% probability of securing a playoff spot.
